HOW BADLY IS TRUMP LOSING THE WAR?

HE JUST LOST IT, AND WHAT LOSING A WAR OVER THE WORLD'S ENERGY MEANS

Trump is losing his reckless, foolish, and illegal war on Iran. In fact, I think he just lost it. And he’s now so desperate that he just admitted it. In the most Trumpian way possible, which is to say surreal, pathetic, and head-spinning. He begged the world for help. He even just begged China. Yes, really. Go ahead and laugh in horrified glee LOL with me.

After a week that brutalized markets around the globe, Trump fell under pressure to…fix the mess that he’d created. If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, then we face an energy crisis of unknown magnitude and duration. Kiss the global economy goodbye. And so this morning, he did something fairly incredible and pathetic, even for Trump. He “asked for help” to keep the Strait open. As if everyone else should swoop in and clean up the mess this abusive and idiotic man has made, wife style.

There’s a lot to decode here, so let’s go through it quickly.

Now. Who did he ask for help? The UK, France, and so on. But note: China, of all people. Go ahead and chuckle with me. Trump is begging China for help. To join his side. In…Iran.

This must have caused eruptions of laughter in Beijing registering like earthquakes. Incredulous ones. China is already winning this war, emerging as a far more sober party in global affairs. But this? To ask China for help, after America bombed its ally? After Trump just spent the last year trying to cripple it economically? Incredible, but more than that, tone-deaf, but more than that—an admission of just how astoundingly incompetent, foolish, arrogant, and ignorant Trump’s team really are.

Here we are dealing with people who genuinely have zero understanding of how the world actually works, until it’s too late, and then, in a surreal turn of events, they beg for help from the very people they paint as nemeses and enemies. The likelihood that China, of all people, joins Trump’s war on Iran, on America’s side, is so colossally stupid that the mind can barely contain it without bursting out into pained laughter.

So this is also a sign of just how desperate Trump really is. He’s begging China for help, to join the war, on his side.

What is he willing to give up, Beijing will ask, because if nothing else, they are extremely canny negotiators. They won't do it, of course, but they will read it for what it is: an almost unbelievable sign of almost unbelievable stupidity, because…

That brings me to the second thing this is. Trump just admitted that the USA. can’t solve this problem by itself, the problem it created. That is to say, the entire might of its armed forces, its Navy, the Pentagon, all of it…can’t keep the Strait of Hormuz open.

Think about that for a second. We all know asymmetries in war, but here we have people so foolish, Trump’s team, they didn’t consider them for a moment. You can mine the Strait of Hormuz, apparently, from a jetski. Good luck fighting that in some remote, distanced way.

So. Trump just admitted that the USA can’t keep the Strait open by itself, which is to say, he more or less admitted that he lost the war.

Think about that, too, for a moment. It took a matter of days for Trump to humiliate himself before the world, and here he is, begging for help from his own self-described enemies, like China, precisely because he has created a mess so tangled that all of America’s military might cannot put it right.

Unreal. And yet somehow unsurprising, too.

Now. Where does this leave us?

Nobody is going to join Trump. The odds of China sending ships to defend Donald Trump are about the same odds as Trump growing a brain and a soul tomorrow. Will Europe send warships into the Strait? It’d be very, very foolish too, because of course, then it becomes a wholesale party to this war, and is seen as under Trump’s thumb. Let me amend what I said. Nobody should join Trump, but there are a handful of nations foolish enough that might just do it anyways, because they’re still desperate to appease him. The UK and Germany spring to mind.

Fix my mess, mommy. Should the world take responsibility for cleaning up after Trump? What should we do when violent dictators “ask for help?” Trump started this war. How does it end? Who should end it? Is it now the world’s job to tidy up Trump’s messes? Does it then legitimize them and become complicit in them? If you bomb schoolkids, after double-crossing diplomacy, should any democracy be on “your side”? This is the slipperiest of slippery slopes. A descent into escalation, and the idea that international law is now a relic of the past. Perhaps Britain is thoughtless enough now to become part of Trump’s new coalition of global dictatorship, but I have doubts that others will want to be, from France to, LOL, don’t make me say it again, OK, let’s all chortle, China.

None of this is going to fix anything. What really happened today is that Trump just admitted he lost the war. He can’t keep the Strait open. Yet the spice must flow, to keep the global economy alive. Iran now has effective control over the global economy, it appears. It must be, along with China, laughing in disbelief. Yes, it’s paid a price, but it was prepared to pay it. What it’s gained, on the other hand, is something surreal: victory over Trump, in a matter of days, and the high ground over the global economy itself.

This takes us into unknown territory.

Remember, Trump has admitted that he cannot keep the Strait open. That means that he cannot guarantee the flow of oil the world crucially depends on, including, by the way, America. And that means that all of this has been for less than nothing. In turn, this creates for us a situation of extreme uncertainty.

How high is too high? Will the price of oil hit $150 a barrel? $200? These are places it could go if the Strait remains closed, of course, plunging the global economy into a deep depression, causing a lost decade, and crashing markets around the world.

Trump is losing control of the very world he wants to be dictator of. And here is where truly terrible things begin to happen. Because when the world refuses Trump’s pathetic begging for help, where will he be left? Then he has two choices, to declare victory and walk away, a humiliated laughingstock, or to double down, again and again. He cannot dictate to the very nations he is now begging for help from, like China and France, LOL.

Now we’re faced with a situation where Trump has lost the war, in the stupidest possible way, which was predictable and yet is somehow still breathtaking. The entire world will now hang by a thread, over the basics, which all come from oil, whose fate is now so uncertain that Trump himself has been reduced to desperately revealing himself to be what he has always been trying to hide: a violent fool, a pathetic moron, a liar, a vicious thief, and a penniless beggar.

These are the kinds of men who start wars. They are never the ones who end them.

Be safe with your money. Cash out. I’ll have more videos up talking about it all soon.

Love,

Umair (and Snowy!)