The Race Between Biden and Trump Is Too Close for Comfort… And Sanity

Can Americas Ailing Democracy Survive Another Donald Trump Election?

Image Credit: Timothy A. Clary via AFP, follow him here

Uh oh — it’s happening. Trump’s road back to the White House is easily within reach. Here’s how Harry Enten puts it: “Trump is not only in a historically strong position for a nonincumbent to win the Republican nomination, but he is in a better position to win the general election than at any point during the 2020 cycle and almost at any point during the 2016 cycle.” 

Translation: Trump could be America’s next President — all over again. And if that happens — every thoughtful person knows American democracy probably grinds to a halt. Then, anything and everything’s on the cards — a Ron DeSantis style agenda, only for the nation. America becomes an autocracy — hardening a grim trend globally.

Think about that for a second. Trump is still very much on the road to the White House…despite it all. Jan 6th. The indictments. The ones which have already happened — and the near certainty more are to come. The impeachments. All the scandals, abuses, grim remembrances. None of it appears to have affected Trump’s chances at all.

Why is that?

Let’s go back what Harry has to say: 

What should arguably be more amazing is that despite most Americans agreeing that Trump’s two indictments thus far were warranted, he remains competitive in a potential rematch with President Joe Biden. A poll out last week from Marquette University Law School had Biden and Trump tied percentage-wise.

The Marquette poll is one of a number of surveys showing Trump either tied or ahead of Biden. The ABC News/Washington Post poll has published three surveys of the matchup between the two, and Trump has come out ahead — albeit within the margin of error — every time.

What’s going on here? A lot more than it appears at first glance, if you ask me.

One aspect of it is, yes, that Trump’s bonded with this base the way demagogues do. He’s formed a surrogate parental attachment with them. They see him as an omnipotent father figure, all knowing, all seeing, invincible, which is why cries of “cult!” come from the other side. If it seems Trump can do no wrong, that’s because to his flock, like every real demagogue, he can’t. The spell has yet to be broken.

And that spell has a hold on certain parts of America for a reason. Times are tough. Incredibly tough. They’ve been tough, and they haven’t gotten better for decades. So when demagogues point fingers at scapegoats, of course, angry and desperate people are only too eager to listen. America’s long, ugly history of “race” and violence hardly helps, creating a permanent oil slick on which all a demagogue has to do, really, is throw a match.

But all this isn’t really an explanation. Trump’s base is gone. They are politically unsalvageable, as far as democracy goes. That’s a characteristic feature of social collapse — once a certain set of social groups gets radicalized, undoing it is next to impossible. Think of how many nations in the world are beset by fanatics — and how fanatics almost never suddenly come to their senses. It’s not just that power is its own lure — it’s that democracy depends on a certain set of norms and values, and those cut to the core of people’s very identities, beliefs, ways of understanding the world. Radicalizing someone is easy — unradicalizing them is next to impossible.

Democracy isn’t in trouble just because of Trump’s base alone. Rather, it’s the “independents” who are the linchpin here. We’ll come back to them in a moment.

On the other side, Democrats, of the tried and true, faithful, party-allegiant kind, are roaring about Bidenomics’ triumphs. Biden’s team has decided to make Bidenomics the central pitch of this election. Let me put that another way.

This election will be a referendum on Bidenomics. Versus, if you like, sheer frustration and despair igniting into the rage of what American pundits call “culture wars” — really, demagoguery and scapegoating. It’s hardly just “cultural,” after all, to criminalize teachers and doctors and women and kids and families — it’s a very real legislative attack. Erasing rights, as Republicans are doing around the country, at light speed, isn’t just “cultural” — it’s an autocratic blitzkrieg, in classic fascist style.

So there are the Dems, pitching Bidenomics, furiously. Smart? Wise?